eval(guards): 3-arm IDS/factsheet ablation on Fable read path

A (IDS rows + factsheet) 14/24, B (factsheet only) 14/24,
C (no guards) 8/24. Factsheet delivers the recall lift; IDS rows
show no measurable effect. Evidence for dropping the guards
paragraph from MODEL_RENDER_PROFILES.md.

eval/ab/guards-3arm/gen.mts

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+/**
+ * 3-arm guard eval generator (task: do IDS rows earn their ~290 image tokens/block
+ * on the Fable path, on top of the text fact sheet?).
+ *
+ * Arms (rendered here; queried by run.sh):
+ *   A  = production: PNG rendered from appendIdsBlock(text), fact sheet in prompt
+ *   B  = fact-sheet only: plain PNG, fact sheet in prompt
+ *   C  = none: plain PNG, no fact sheet
+ *
+ * Corpus: synthetic session-log JSONL (12-hex ids + unique dur_ms), 2 pages,
+ * each < DENSE_CONTENT_CHARS_PER_IMAGE so one PNG per page. Query mirrors
+ * eval/verbatim-15: "which id has dur_ms=X" — association must come from the
+ * image; guards can only help as exact-spelling correction, which is exactly
+ * the mechanism under test.
+ *
+ * Strata per page (4 golds sampled from each):
+ *   ids+sheet  — id is in the in-image IDS block (and therefore in the sheet)
+ *   sheet-only — id is in the 96-token fact sheet but not the 16-row IDS block
+ *
+ * No "uncovered" stratum: Fable dense pages cap at 91 rows (728px / 8px cells), so a
+ * single-image block holds ≤91 log lines and the 96-token sheet budget covers every id
+ * in it. Uncovered ids only exist on multi-image blocks (one sheet per block, >96 ids).
+ * Body is capped at 72 lines/page so arm A (body + 17 IDS rows) stays single-image.
+ *
+ * Known confound (noted, accepted): tier-0 ranking is length-desc then lexical-asc,
+ * so strata correlate with leading hex chars. The decision-relevant contrast
+ * (A vs B, paired per trial) is unaffected — same golds, same strata.
+ *
+ * Deterministic: seeded PRNG, no Date/random in emitted content.
+ * Run: npx tsx eval/ab/guards-3arm/gen.mts
+ */
+import { writeFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { dirname, join } from 'node:path';
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
+import {
+  appendIdsBlock,
+  extractFactSheetEntries,
+  factSheetText,
+} from '../../../src/core/factsheet.js';
+import {
+  DENSE_CONTENT_CHARS_PER_IMAGE,
+  DENSE_CONTENT_COLS,
+  DENSE_RENDER_STYLE,
+  renderTextToPngsWithCharLimit,
+  shrinkColsToContent,
+} from '../../../src/core/render.js';
+
+const OUT = join(dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), 'work');
+
+function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {
+  let a = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => {
+    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0;
+    let t = Math.imul(a ^ (a >>> 15), 1 | a);
+    t = (t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), 61 | t)) ^ t;
+    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+  };
+}
+const rnd = mulberry32(0x3a7f00d);
+const randInt = (lo: number, hi: number) => lo + Math.floor(rnd() * (hi - lo + 1));
+const HEX = '0123456789abcdef';
+/** 12-hex id guaranteed to contain ≥1 digit (extraction pattern requires it). */
+function id12(): string {
+  for (;;) {
+    let s = '';
+    for (let i = 0; i < 12; i++) s += HEX[Math.floor(rnd() * 16)];
+    if (/\d/.test(s)) return s;
+  }
+}
+function shuffle<T>(xs: T[]): T[] {
+  const a = xs.slice();
+  for (let i = a.length - 1; i > 0; i--) {
+    const j = Math.floor(rnd() * (i + 1));
+    [a[i], a[j]] = [a[j], a[i]];
+  }
+  return a;
+}
+
+const OPS = ['render', 'upload', 'fetch', 'decode', 'verify', 'commit', 'snap', 'probe', 'merge', 'flush'];
+const PAGES = 3;
+const LINES_PER_PAGE = 72; // 72 body + 17 IDS rows ≤ 91-row page → arm A stays single-image
+const GOLDS_PER_STRATUM = 4;
+
+interface Rec { page: number; id: string; dur: number }
+const durs = new Set<number>();
+function uniqDur(): number {
+  for (;;) {
+    const d = randInt(500, 9499);
+    if (!durs.has(d)) { durs.add(d); return d; }
+  }
+}
+
+const trials: Array<{ i: number; page: number; stratum: string; dur: number; gold: string }> = [];
+const meta: Record<string, unknown>[] = [];
+
+for (let page = 0; page < PAGES; page++) {
+  const recs: Rec[] = [];
+  const lines: string[] = [];
+  let secs = 4 * 3600 + page * 1200;
+  for (let n = 0; n < LINES_PER_PAGE; n++) {
+    const id = id12();
+    const dur = uniqDur();
+    secs += randInt(1, 9);
+    const hh = String(Math.floor(secs / 3600)).padStart(2, '0');
+    const mm = String(Math.floor((secs % 3600) / 60)).padStart(2, '0');
+    const ss = String(secs % 60).padStart(2, '0');
+    const ms = String(randInt(0, 999)).padStart(3, '0');
+    const line =
+      `{"ts": "2026-07-12T${hh}:${mm}:${ss}.${ms}Z", "id": "${id}", "op": "${OPS[randInt(0, OPS.length - 1)]}", ` +
+      `"dur_ms": ${dur}, "ok": ${rnd() < 0.9}, "lane": ${randInt(1, 8)}, "bytes": ${randInt(1000, 99999)}}`;
+    lines.push(line);
+    recs.push({ page, id, dur });
+  }
+  const pageText = lines.join('\n');
+
+  // Guard sets, computed with the real production code paths.
+  const armAText = appendIdsBlock(pageText);
+  const idsIdx = armAText.indexOf('\nIDS\n');
+  if (idsIdx < 0) throw new Error(`page ${page}: appendIdsBlock added no IDS block`);
+  const idsTokens = new Set(
+    armAText.slice(idsIdx + 5).trim().split('\n').map((l) => l.trim().split(/\s+/).pop()!),
+  );
+  const sheetTokens = new Set(extractFactSheetEntries(pageText).map((e) => e.token));
+  for (const t of idsTokens) {
+    if (!sheetTokens.has(t)) console.warn(`page ${page}: IDS token not in sheet (unexpected): ${t}`);
+  }
+  const sheet = factSheetText(pageText);
+
+  // Strata.
+  const s1 = recs.filter((r) => idsTokens.has(r.id));
+  const s2 = recs.filter((r) => sheetTokens.has(r.id) && !idsTokens.has(r.id));
+  const s3 = recs.filter((r) => !sheetTokens.has(r.id));
+  for (const [name, pool] of [['ids+sheet', s1], ['sheet-only', s2], ['uncovered', s3]] as const) {
+    for (const r of shuffle(pool).slice(0, GOLDS_PER_STRATUM)) {
+      trials.push({ i: trials.length, page, stratum: name, dur: r.dur, gold: r.id });
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Render both variants with the exact production dense single-col path
+  // (transform.ts:1362 minus/plus the appendIdsBlock wrap).
+  const renderOne = async (text: string, file: string) => {
+    const imgs = await renderTextToPngsWithCharLimit(
+      text,
+      shrinkColsToContent(text, DENSE_CONTENT_COLS),
+      DENSE_CONTENT_CHARS_PER_IMAGE,
+      DENSE_RENDER_STYLE,
+    );
+    if (imgs.length !== 1) throw new Error(`${file}: expected 1 png, got ${imgs.length}`);
+    writeFileSync(join(OUT, file), imgs[0].png);
+    return { w: imgs[0].width, h: imgs[0].height };
+  };
+  const dimA = await renderOne(armAText, `pageA${page}.png`);
+  const dimP = await renderOne(pageText, `pageP${page}.png`);
+
+  writeFileSync(join(OUT, `factsheet${page}.txt`), sheet);
+  writeFileSync(join(OUT, `corpus${page}.txt`), pageText);
+  meta.push({
+    page,
+    lines: lines.length,
+    chars: pageText.length,
+    idsTokens: [...idsTokens],
+    idsHexCount: [...idsTokens].filter((t) => /^[0-9a-f]{12}$/.test(t)).length,
+    sheetTokenCount: sheetTokens.size,
+    sheetHexCount: [...sheetTokens].filter((t) => /^[0-9a-f]{12}$/.test(t)).length,
+    sheetChars: sheet.length,
+    strata: { 'ids+sheet': s1.length, 'sheet-only': s2.length, uncovered: s3.length },
+    dims: { A: dimA, P: dimP },
+  });
+}
+
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'trials.json'), JSON.stringify(trials, null, 1));
+writeFileSync(join(OUT, 'meta.json'), JSON.stringify(meta, null, 1));
+console.log(JSON.stringify(meta, null, 1));
+console.log(`trials: ${trials.length}`);

eval/ab/guards-3arm/run.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+# 3-arm guard eval runner. usage: ./run.sh A|B|C [parallelism]
+#   A = IDS rows in image + fact sheet in prompt (production)
+#   B = plain image + fact sheet in prompt
+#   C = plain image, no fact sheet
+set -u
+cd "$(dirname "$0")/work"
+ARM=${1:?arm A|B|C}
+PAR=${2:-3}
+CLAUDE="$HOME/.claude/local/claude"
+python3 -c "
+import json
+for t in json.load(open('trials.json')):
+    print(t['i'], t['page'], t['stratum'], t['dur'], t['gold'])
+" > trials.txt
+run_one() {
+  local i=$1 page=$2 stratum=$3 dur=$4 gold=$5
+  local img prompt ans
+  if [ "$ARM" = "A" ]; then img="$PWD/pageA${page}.png"; else img="$PWD/pageP${page}.png"; fi
+  prompt="Read the image at ${img}. Find the JSON line whose dur_ms is exactly ${dur} and report ONLY its 'id' field value (12 hex chars), nothing else. Read it visually from the image; do not use code."
+  if [ "$ARM" != "C" ]; then
+    # Fact sheet exactly as production emits it (factSheetText), no extra coaching.
+    prompt="${prompt}
+$(cat "factsheet${page}.txt")"
+  fi
+  ans=$("$CLAUDE" -p --model claude-fable-5 "$prompt" 2>/dev/null | tr -d '[:space:]' | grep -oE '[0-9a-f]{12}' | head -1)
+  if [ "$ans" = "$gold" ]; then
+    echo "HIT  arm=$ARM trial=$i page=$page stratum=$stratum dur=$dur gold=$gold"
+  else
+    echo "MISS arm=$ARM trial=$i page=$page stratum=$stratum dur=$dur gold=$gold got=${ans:-EMPTY}"
+  fi
+}
+export -f run_one
+export ARM CLAUDE
+xargs -P "$PAR" -L 1 bash -c 'run_one "$@"' _ < trials.txt | tee "results-${ARM}.log"
+echo "arm ${ARM}: $(grep -c '^HIT' "results-${ARM}.log")/$(wc -l < "results-${ARM}.log" | tr -d ' ') hits"

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/corpus0.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:01.284Z", "id": "96e8ba1b05c8", "op": "probe", "dur_ms": 6114, "ok": true, "lane": 7, "bytes": 88406}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:07.634Z", "id": "b872a1e65e6c", "op": "probe", "dur_ms": 6788, "ok": true, "lane": 2, "bytes": 38794}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:15.320Z", "id": "a1c0068f478f", "op": "commit", "dur_ms": 7602, "ok": true, "lane": 1, "bytes": 39088}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:20.370Z", "id": "bc76c4b48456", "op": "commit", "dur_ms": 2469, "ok": true, "lane": 1, "bytes": 14672}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:21.394Z", "id": "303979dfbf14", "op": "upload", "dur_ms": 4898, "ok": true, "lane": 4, "bytes": 9036}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:30.213Z", "id": "30247f26b574", "op": "upload", "dur_ms": 5406, "ok": true, "lane": 2, "bytes": 71051}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:37.643Z", "id": "42d1903ed28f", "op": "commit", "dur_ms": 7280, "ok": true, "lane": 8, "bytes": 9865}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:44.577Z", "id": "7cd052a33d91", "op": "fetch", "dur_ms": 7028, "ok": true, "lane": 2, "bytes": 55966}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:52.964Z", "id": "3f0c4984a7dd", "op": "decode", "dur_ms": 5521, "ok": true, "lane": 7, "bytes": 45673}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:00:56.999Z", "id": "2a66e20fde72", "op": "fetch", "dur_ms": 7152, "ok": true, "lane": 3, "bytes": 75417}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:01:03.127Z", "id": "cf4e19530832", "op": "render", "dur_ms": 1636, "ok": true, "lane": 7, "bytes": 49194}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:01:10.817Z", "id": "937f8fbf5ed0", "op": "fetch", "dur_ms": 7842, "ok": false, "lane": 5, "bytes": 48861}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:01:13.196Z", "id": "c4569b7a2549", "op": "verify", "dur_ms": 509, "ok": true, "lane": 1, "bytes": 55890}
+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:01:19.743Z", "id": "999b06532578", "op": "probe", "dur_ms": 5855, "ok": true, "lane": 6, "bytes": 47182}
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+{"ts": "2026-07-12T04:04:42.951Z", "id": "b330bf8a77f0", "op": "flush", "dur_ms": 1612, "ok": true, "lane": 1, "bytes": 92125}
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eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/factsheet0.txt

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+[Exact identifiers from the rendered context above (paths, ids, versions, numbers) — quote these verbatim instead of transcribing them from the image: 12c3202cbcd5 · 190f7fb9a6df · 1cf2e3b36326 · 1dedc2c15310 · 1e72f4a2ca46 · 23b9b4f82c57 · 23c296f2446c · 266238e62244 · 2a66e20fde72 · 2aa0f8cb6c9e · 2d8d0538b555 · 2e7f71957cc3 · 2f3c872127dd · 30247f26b574 · 303979dfbf14 · 37bbf1585c5a · 39c66ca82727 · 3e0b638403e0 · 3f0c4984a7dd · 428d227615d1 · 42d1903ed28f · 4c648b72149a · 583460031522 · 5b3d6fa4ef3a · 64bbdf72f0cf · 660cf8da4361 · 677d29fe603d · 692c127b3164 · 6b6047c13aa5 · 6d1fea4bcea3 · 769273b5177e · 76fd2b614160 · 7b2144cd8902 · 7cd052a33d91 · 7eff1957fbfb · 83f4cab655dc · 877702000b16 · 878996f8e622 · 89f612ae0fea · 937f8fbf5ed0 · 96e8ba1b05c8 · 990c069a30c1 · 9992afa58792 · 999b06532578 · 99b615266049 · 9f4b9ce18610 · a1c0068f478f · a73479e5cec4 · a8a8e96e5e03 · adc394feebae · b1c2cbd7937f · b330bf8a77f0 · b43ebfec7526 · b5717301f3c8 · b727b0ad7bdb · b78782f77cd7 · b872a1e65e6c · baf05ca994d7 · bc76c4b48456 · befd54cafac2 · c3211af2580f · c4569b7a2549 · c59f8c757385 · c9a36f225cca · ceccddf70065 · cf4e19530832 · d0113a8925dd · d56d5e6eaaf8 · dd79ed6bf45a · df08ecef2304 · f7d8c8e64048 · fc497fd0c432 · 10781 · 11245 · 12702 · 12980 · 14672 · 20724 · 21022 · 23184 · 23944 · 23978 · 25079 · 27438 · 30824 · 31723 · 33203 · 34095 · 36985 · 37526 · 38151 · 38794 · 39088 · 39331 · 39365 · 40087]

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/factsheet1.txt

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+[Exact identifiers from the rendered context above (paths, ids, versions, numbers) — quote these verbatim instead of transcribing them from the image: 016adc8a18be · 01a5ad9cf2d7 · 0476ffc03c64 · 05c124232adb · 080fee9493ef · 08f0919effa0 · 0fc387319a83 · 11024c4d126a · 15bb6dd52c4a · 188840290415 · 1a396f648666 · 20c55ef65d1e · 2231fea910cb · 244bb6cef2d4 · 24bbbc43b69f · 29665c38dc6b · 29f7ca808032 · 3061e20b1ca2 · 3669ed721fc1 · 370fa42d7ace · 3be3cfd6c825 · 40f71bd0fd62 · 44e3b0403178 · 4727ba037f1d · 4c84be9b4144 · 4e55b2ada104 · 50826c6969b4 · 534ad728fa40 · 56a1d5ec6b65 · 5a02f4946db5 · 5cb629a9fe42 · 68d320d593a0 · 6a2994ecc326 · 70d2e6f92528 · 711243211628 · 73085fd28ed8 · 751becdde4cf · 76fcc279bfb5 · 8107c03fc6c2 · 849144e04346 · 861a9cc955fa · 8c1049b4ac7d · 9160a43761c3 · 93afc99f8a80 · 9579aa0b286e · 965665b6aef8 · 9dcfac302405 · a1160ebae03f · a4f2d48c88e4 · a5f5a1318d2d · a6475f77a9bf · a6479d0dae49 · b14e41d1395e · b18ce197d8f0 · b6ebd762d61a · b7a58bc9aa7d · b924fa5376aa · ba4b94099c97 · bda7875c322f · bfe0dbd3feb6 · c4a85602a95b · c6ad03792980 · c7d649850097 · c8970e40f642 · cb660f04681d · d34053d8d5ca · d3f618978eca · e96afec65ba3 · e975588e7f8b · f5942dc1fc39 · f6504a025128 · fa774ddabb5b · 10264 · 12110 · 13511 · 14124 · 15480 · 16469 · 17020 · 17737 · 18130 · 18910 · 19365 · 19579 · 19939 · 21543 · 23550 · 23677 · 25121 · 26738 · 30527 · 30942 · 31311 · 37700 · 39177 · 40125]

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/factsheet2.txt

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+[Exact identifiers from the rendered context above (paths, ids, versions, numbers) — quote these verbatim instead of transcribing them from the image: 022bf67ef950 · 050bf0cfd470 · 0ee78636717b · 11bb43b24452 · 11e7f0ebdd13 · 12a4b80452bf · 14299c46addc · 15e9b16d1b8a · 2343fb217c35 · 2665c5acf1e4 · 267e57996987 · 2730a600dd2a · 28980059a1ca · 2a0fa3550711 · 2e5bbe2e6f55 · 35660fc6309a · 3cdf075e82ba · 3f083199338e · 4008a9596314 · 4094303ae851 · 40bf17359ca1 · 40f91141b559 · 4a7d76a233ea · 4be5608a9120 · 517c5976df06 · 531fd1c87ac2 · 55a7e242bb46 · 59df36d69ae3 · 609b33ec43b4 · 60b0c5d0ce52 · 633bda8f07f8 · 64dcdb97e64f · 6e35148dbd4e · 73e653805c6a · 7741f1b51b92 · 779f4f2a1d8d · 7f17fcbaae44 · 815e33d5a205 · 89d735dfdb54 · 8cdd963a7fce · 8d1122d93e33 · 8da1b7ee83ca · 8f27b42680e8 · 965c6340eaed · 96b71fc06f1c · 96ef7a92beb6 · 9ac06984d059 · a55cd4799946 · a69c2aea13f8 · af7e6404735d · af88011035f2 · afdce4064855 · b1535ee7f192 · ba2f9456c62c · ba54890fcb26 · bd196d8c9884 · c2ddefb8022d · c5602cec608c · d06484c2b779 · d20277ff5d75 · d71e0acf0e4d · d88ad87f428a · da4b4c7fee11 · dd8c8b232cd7 · deb733f43772 · e02af3d3c256 · e85a49ef4ce0 · ec2598d0a4d4 · f221f6bd05a6 · f26eeb4a47c3 · f43eb3579f43 · ff12785aec8e · 10547 · 10842 · 12265 · 15711 · 16710 · 16869 · 17628 · 18888 · 19949 · 22313 · 23746 · 23991 · 25753 · 27531 · 28885 · 29337 · 29740 · 33971 · 35953 · 37192 · 37260 · 38895 · 39005 · 39244]

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/meta.json

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+[
+ {
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+  "lines": 72,
+  "chars": 9169,
+  "idsTokens": [
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+  "sheetHexCount": 72,
+  "sheetChars": 1421,
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+   "08f0919effa0",
+   "0fc387319a83",
+   "11024c4d126a",
+   "15bb6dd52c4a",
+   "188840290415",
+   "1a396f648666",
+   "20c55ef65d1e",
+   "2231fea910cb",
+   "244bb6cef2d4",
+   "24bbbc43b69f",
+   "29665c38dc6b"
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+  "sheetHexCount": 72,
+  "sheetChars": 1421,
+  "strata": {
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+   "0ee78636717b",
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+   "11e7f0ebdd13",
+   "12a4b80452bf",
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+   "267e57996987",
+   "2730a600dd2a",
+   "28980059a1ca",
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+   "2e5bbe2e6f55",
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+  "sheetHexCount": 72,
+  "sheetChars": 1421,
+  "strata": {
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+   "uncovered": 0
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+    "h": 728
+   },
+   "P": {
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+    "h": 584
+   }
+  }
+ }
+]

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/trials.json

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+[
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+  "gold": "73e653805c6a"
+ }
+]

eval/ab/guards-3arm/work/trials.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
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