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teamchong
91c969b593
Live-traffic diagnosis: typical single-session warm-cache load has the same cached image across turns (pixel CV = 0%) AND text variance of 3-4% (verified 2026-05-19: 117k/127k/128k chars across three turns = 3.84% CV). Both columns failed the original 5%-everywhere gate, so the constrained fallback I just shipped never actually activated — the dashboard fell straight through to wandering stale constants. The 5% gate exists to stop joint OLS from splitting two indistinguishable parameters. In constrained mode β is pinned (no split to make), so we're fitting one parameter through the origin — 1-D OLS is numerically stable at much lower variance. 2% is conservative; even 1% would converge. New thresholds: MIN_CV_JOINT = 0.05 (unchanged — both columns must vary) MIN_CV_CONSTRAINED = 0.02 (NEW — text only, β-pinned through origin) Real-world impact: live single-session traffic now activates constrained mode after 3 compressed turns instead of waiting for cross-session variance that may never arrive. Dashboard label flips from amber 'stale constants' to blue 'constrained · α-only' — operator sees a measured α within ~30 seconds of starting a fresh proxy. Tests: + new: live-traffic-shape sample activates constrained mode (3.84% CV) + new: below-2% floor still rejects (no garbage 1-D fits) unchanged: 2-D collinear cases still null, joint-fit at high CV still returns mode='joint'